Freight Under Scrutiny: Where Are the Savings Headed?

We analyse the key factors behind the current maritime overcapacity and how the slowdown in consumption is redefining the rules of the game for shippers.

If we look at the SCFI (Shanghai Containerised Freight Index) for the last year, the graph is revealing, with a peak in tension that reached almost £2,250/TEU in mid-2025. This spike was no accident: it was the result of a perfect storm where temporary congestion at key ports and massive route diversions around the Cape of Good Hope absorbed capacity at a stroke. However, after this stress, the market has entered a sustained downward slope to the current £1,250, a figure that breathes life back into the income statements, but which requires a deeper reading.

The primary driver of this decline is sluggish global consumption. Demand has yet to recover, which has taken pressure off the shipping companies. Added to this is a structural factor: excess supply. Shipping companies are receiving a wave of new large-capacity vessels ordered after the pandemic boom. There are simply more ships than cargo. In addition, the gradual return to the Suez Canal is injecting even more effective capacity into the system by reducing transit times and increasing fleet turnover.

Despite this scenario of ‘low prices,’ we should not be overly optimistic. Shippers have not gained absolute bargaining power; shipping companies continue to control supply. What we do have is a much more favourable negotiating scenario for renewing contracts on more competitive terms than a year ago. But beware: the shipping industry is already reacting to protect its margins.

As the port call cancellation rate shows, alliances are implementing drastic cuts to prevent prices from collapsing. Especially in early 2026, we are seeing cancellation peaks exceeding 20% in the Ocean Alliance and Premier. This is the shipping companies’ defence tool: if there are too many ships and too little cargo, they simply stop operating ports of call to artificially maintain the shortage of space.

💡 The Shipper’s Decision: Flexibility

Despite this favourable cost scenario, shippers must be alert to the possible reaction of shipping companies. With so much excess capacity, we are likely to see more increases in port cancellations in an attempt to drain supply and sustain prices.

Practical Advice: Take advantage of the situation to negotiate, but prioritise flexibility. In a market that is still searching for its floor, now is not the time to tie yourself into long-term contracts. Barring any geopolitical surprises, we believe that calm has arrived and is here to stay for a while.